Although it is difficult for seismologists to predict an earthquake, whenever the earth’s tectonic plates collide under Myanmar, Yangon is vulnerable because it is only 35 kilometres from the 1000-km-long Sagaing Fault.

The effects of an earthquake pose more risk for Yangon because it has thousands of old buildings.

Earthquakes have hit the country, including Yangon, more frequently since 2010, so residents of buildings that are suspected to be unsafe have urged the Myanmar Earthquake Committee to check their buildings’ earthquake resistance.

In March, a magnitude 5.8 earthquake centred in Taikkyi township hit Yangon, cracking walls in high-rise buildings.

Residents of old high-rise buildings have only recently started asking for earthquake-resistance checks, according to U Saw Htway Zaw, secretary of the Myanmar Earthquake Committee.

“People living in high-rise buildings should check their buildings’ earthquake-resistance and know what magnitude of earthquake they can withstand,” he said.

 The  committee has checked more than 50 public buildings and infrastructure, including Yangon Hospital and government school, with the help of UN-Habitat, said U Saw Htway Zaw.

 “Our committee, together with UN-Habitat, has checked 50 public buildings this year. We will review all those structures and send our report to relevant government ministries,” he said.

Although it is impossible to predict when a major earthquake will hit Yangon, residents should check their earthquake resistance, said U Myo Thant, vice president of the earthquake committee.

“We can say for certain that an earthquake will happen again, though we cannot say when. So residents of old buildings should check them for earthquake resistance. Earthquakes are happening more frequently than in the past, and large magnitude quakes struck in 2011 and twice in 2016. A 5.8 magnitude earthquake hit Yangon on the night of March 13,” he said.

The March 13 quake happened at the West Bago Yoma Fault, but the fault that could set off a large magnitude quake in Yangon is the Sagaing Fault, said U Myo Thant.

“The Sagaing Fault’s last major quake, of more than magnitude 7, happened in 1930, so another one is expected. Large quakes happen nearly every 100 years, so a new quake along Sagaing Fault is expected soon,” he said.

“In the 1930 Bago earthquake, more than 500 people died, 50 people died in Yangon and buildings were damaged. Although the damage in Yangon was not severe at the time, if a large quake were to hit now, Yangon’s damage would be much more significant than in the past,” he said.

The Sagaing and Bago faults could produce a quake measuring 7 or more on the Richter Scale, while the Dedaye Fault could cause a quake measuring 6 or more, according to a report by the committee.

On an earthquake map of Myanmar, which shows quake strength and expected damage after a strong quake, Yangon is in a “fair damage zone”, Zone 2B, according to geologists.

Columbia University research teams expect a quake measuring nearly 9 on the Richter Scale to hit the border of Myanmar, India and Bangladesh, according to a report last year in Nature Geosciences magazine.

There are only 18 GPS monitors in the country to measure underground movement, and there is no technology yet that can estimate the exact time and place of a quake, according to Daw Hla Hla Aung, seismologist and retired professor of geology at the University of Yangon.

An earthquake’s affect on lives and property is more dangerous than the quake itself, said Daw Hla Hla Aung,  also a patron of the earthquake committee.

“In the past when a large earthquake happened, almost all the houses were wooden and stood alone, so falling houses did not affect other houses. But now there are many high-rise buildings, some built by unqualified contractors, and old buildings in Yangon, and if a strong quake hits, many buildings could collapse,” she said.

To lessen the risk, proper planning is required. Residents should prepare at least one room inside their unit as a safe room if they cannot repair the whole house, she said.

U Yan Aung,  managing director of Asia Construction, said Yangon City Development Committee (YCDC) checks the earthquake resistance of all new houses before giving permits for people to live in them.

“After 2010, when the democracy government took power, the YCDC started checking new houses step-by-step, even the foundations and other details, before granting a living permit. The YCDC tests not only the buildings but also their construction techniques, so the quality of new buildings is good,” he said.

In the past, officials did not fully check the quality of buildings, and there are many substandard and poor-quality  structures that could collapse when a quake of more than magnitude 6 strikes, said U Yan Aung.

“Although the YCDC law was enacted to ensure buildings can withstand earthquakes and natural disasters, YCDC officials did not begin using the law until 2010. Before that, there were no quality checks of buildings, so there are many substandard and illegal buildings around Yangon.,” he said.

Moreover, buildings are closely erected in Yangon and this could pose a danger, said U Yan Aung.

“Many buildings in Tamwe township are built very close, ignoring the current rule that requires at least 6 inches of space. Most buildings built before 2000 are of low quality, so they cannot resist a quake,” he said.